Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $46,687$ on 2020-04-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{49,598.6}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(49,598.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,207$ on 2020-04-27

Best fit exponential: \(281 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,607.5}{1 + 10^{-0.078 (t - 33.8)}}\) (asimptote \(7,607.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,602$ on 2020-04-27

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $229,422$ on 2020-04-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.93 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{222,226.0}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(222,226.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $23,521$ on 2020-04-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,911.4}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 30.1)}}\) (asimptote \(22,911.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $85,069$ on 2020-04-27

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $199,414$ on 2020-04-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.83 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{197,503.2}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(197,503.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26,977$ on 2020-04-27

Best fit exponential: \(2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,938.4}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(26,938.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $105,813$ on 2020-04-27

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $165,963$ on 2020-04-27

Best fit exponential: \(9.44 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{181,795.9}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 39.9)}}\) (asimptote \(181,795.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $23,327$ on 2020-04-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.16 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,798.6}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 35.2)}}\) (asimptote \(23,798.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $96,343$ on 2020-04-27

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $158,348$ on 2020-04-27

Best fit exponential: \(5.48 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{174,484.2}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 40.7)}}\) (asimptote \(174,484.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21,157$ on 2020-04-27

Best fit exponential: \(842 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,555.4}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 34.1)}}\) (asimptote \(22,555.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $136,384$ on 2020-04-27

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $38,440$ on 2020-04-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,929.7}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(40,929.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,534$ on 2020-04-27

Best fit exponential: \(288 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,745.8}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 33.4)}}\) (asimptote \(4,745.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,789$ on 2020-04-27

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $18,926$ on 2020-04-27

Best fit exponential: \(780 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,786.2}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 46.4)}}\) (asimptote \(23,786.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,274$ on 2020-04-27

Best fit exponential: \(84.6 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,829.9}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,829.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,647$ on 2020-04-27

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $19,648$ on 2020-04-27

Best fit exponential: \(598 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,092.0}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(23,092.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,102$ on 2020-04-27

Best fit exponential: \(16.2 \times 10^{0.039t}\) (doubling rate \(7.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,048.3}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 46.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,048.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,313$ on 2020-04-27

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Iceland recovered 86%
Luxembourg recovered 82%
Austria recovered 75%
Switzerland recovered 63%
Malta recovered 55%
Germany recovered 48%
Denmark recovered 40%
Andorra recovered 37%
Croatia recovered 35%
North Macedonia recovered 20%
Czechia recovered 19%
Lithuania recovered 11%
Italy recovered 2%

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,792$ on 2020-04-27

Best fit exponential: \(271 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,802.3}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,802.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-04-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.59 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.9}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 23.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $158$ on 2020-04-27

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,729$ on 2020-04-27

Best fit exponential: \(459 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,594.2}{1 + 10^{-0.084 (t - 29.9)}}\) (asimptote \(3,594.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $88$ on 2020-04-27

Best fit exponential: \(10.7 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89.2}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 24.9)}}\) (asimptote \(89.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $518$ on 2020-04-27

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,274$ on 2020-04-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,785.9}{1 + 10^{-0.087 (t - 27.4)}}\) (asimptote \(14,785.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $549$ on 2020-04-27

Best fit exponential: \(44.9 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{567.7}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 28.9)}}\) (asimptote \(567.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,363$ on 2020-04-27

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,164$ on 2020-04-27

Best fit exponential: \(3.8 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,504.1}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 29.9)}}\) (asimptote \(28,504.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,665$ on 2020-04-27

Best fit exponential: \(104 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,677.3}{1 + 10^{-0.067 (t - 34.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,677.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,299$ on 2020-04-27